Russia in Global Affairs

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Deconstruction of the South, Or Goodbye, Compass!

Kirill O. Telin

Will It Get Worse? Expert Perception of Global Transformation

Ivan A. Safranchuk, Alexander D. Nesmashnyi, Evgenia S. Komarova

Ukraine: History Politics in Regional Identity-Building

Alexei I. Miller

Contents

Kirill O. Telin

If the G7 and G20 do not support us, the OSCE rejects us, and we are dissatisfied with the General Assembly’s voting, then we need new platforms for our ambitions.

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Ivan A. Safranchuk, Alexander D. Nesmashnyi, Evgenia S. Komarova

IR experts’ perception of the current global transformation has a contradiction: they expect major change in the international system, but see little preparedness for the associated risks. But the complexity of transformation impedes calculation of the probabilities of success or failure.

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Alexei I. Miller

The imagined geography of Ukrainian regions, and its underlying images of the past—and actually the entire struggle between regional narratives, which began with Ukrainian independence—has ended. A new history is beginning.

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No. 4
2025 October/December

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Will It Get Worse? Expert Perception of Global Transformation

Ivan A. Safranchuk, Alexander D. Nesmashnyi, Evgenia S. Komarova

IR experts’ perception of the current global transformation has a contradiction: they expect major change in the international system, but see little preparedness for the associated risks. But the complexity of transformation impedes calculation of the probabilities of success or failure.

More

Ukraine: History Politics in Regional Identity-Building

Alexei I. Miller

The imagined geography of Ukrainian regions, and its underlying images of the past—and actually the entire struggle between regional narratives, which began with Ukrainian independence—has ended. A new history is beginning.

More

Agenda

Washington No Longer Sees Russia As Mordor

It is at least encouraging that Washington has abandoned the cartoonish portrayal of Russia as a kind of Mordor, the fantasy imagery that dominated Western discourse in recent years. The new tone is calmer, pragmatic, almost clinical. But the place assigned to Russia is still not one the country can accept. A junior partner in a reconstructed European house is not a role befitting Russia’s strategic ambitions.

Fyodor A. Lukyanov

Why Russia Should Bet Big on India Now

As Russia pivots towards Asia amidst Western sanctions, the incentives to forge deeper business ties with India have never been greater. By focusing on strategic, sector-specific integration, supported by the new rupee-ruble settlement system, both nations are poised to build a more balanced and resilient economic partnership, capable of thriving amid global uncertainties.

Hriday Ch. Sarma

Escalation of EU Energy Sanctions: The Eighteenth and Nineteenth Packages

There are no signs that China or India intend to comply with the demands of the sanctions-initiating countries. Russian supplies are important for both countries, so their acceptance may be continued by other companies or by those focused exclusively on the Russian market.

Ivan N. Timofeev

Europe’s 19-Point Plan Is a Fantasy. Trump’s 28-Point Deal Is Only Half a Solution

The leak of a European “Coalition of the Willing” counter-proposal to the U.S. 28-point plan has clarified one thing: much of Europe is still negotiating with an imagined Russia and an imagined Ukraine.

Jarold McWilliams

When Will Sir Keir Starmer Talk to Vladimir Putin?

Starmer and Putin will speak sooner than we all expect. How soon is up to Starmer. It could depend on how much worse things get for his government. Rather than wait for doomsday, Starmer should recognise and use the spring in his jump on the world stage. It really would not hurt to give the Russian president a call. The alternative clearly has not achieved anything.

James C. Pearce

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The Legitimacy of the International Order in Eurasia

We can hardly expect that the international order, whether the global or Eurasian one, will be able to reproduce the “ideal” models known from history. We in Greater Eurasia have yet to develop our own criteria for successful coexistence – one that doesn’t create threats that would necessitate questioning the cherished principle of the inviolability of state sovereignty.

Timofei V. Bordachev

Vladimir Putin’s Philosophy of Complexity

A strategic vision of international relations is of great importance to Russia. All global players are locked in a state of zugzwang and prefer to play a tactical waiting game: who will make the first mistake or exhaust their resources? Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin is already prepared, drawing on the philosophy of complexity, to outline the contours of a new, conciliar world order.

Alexander Shchipkov

Good Reasons to Speed Up Russia’s Visa-Free Policy towards China

The challenges to border governance and procedural obstacles are merely tests on the road to openness. Visa-free travel opens a window of opportunity for Chinese society to gain a better understanding of Russia. Thus, rather than worrying about “too many Chinese coming,” Russians should steer for deepening understanding.

The Loss of Humanity and the Illusion of Peace

For the Netanyahu right-wing government, the Israelis traumatized by the perceived existential threat from the Palestinians, compounded by the historical trauma of the Holocaust injustices, had to respond to Hamas’s attacks with genocide in Gaza. Once the psychological barriers were overcome, violence became highly tangible.

Peace Deals vs. Solutions―Kicking the Can Down the Road?

While there are many more words that politicians use in their verbal manipulative strategies and that are worthy of analysis, ‘peace’ and ‘deal’ explain well enough one compelling reason for the dire circumstances the world is in today.

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